2019 has broken down


No letter to shareholders from the CEO but, a few days after the Apple case, too Samsung is forced to communicate a heavy cutting out the prospects for the near future. Starting from the recent past: the revenue forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2018 are expected to be lower than what analysts hypothesized, which is a prelude to a very difficult day on the stock market for the group’s stock.

And this is a very strong cut: profits are assumed to be around 10.8 billion won, almost 30% less than the previous year and definitely below the 13.2 billion forecast by financial analysts; the turnover is instead ascertained around 59 thousand billion won, also in this case below estimates that indicated 62 thousand billion as a possible goal. These figures not only throw Samsung into the group of companies that risk pulling the stock market towards a period of heavy downturn, but also allow us to reconsider the crisis of Cupertino more in the perspective of the general crisis than in light of problems merely internal to the Apple market.

For Samsung, the difficult period could also continue in the months to come, especially in light of the fact that the causes of the collapse seem to be linked to a general drop in demand (thus linking the trend reversal to an emerging macroeconomic situation). Major suspects in this case are the smartphone market restriction (where Samsung had a leadership role for years among high-end devices) and that linked to chip in memoria. Furthermore, the Korean group is certainly not indifferent to the tensions between the US and China, a line on which the group sees perhaps about a third of its turnover in question: the fall in Chinese demand, in addition to having destroyed Apple, has certainly also played a primary role in Samsung slowdown. There is also a correlation between the two events: the restriction of the Chinese market that brought down the sale of the iPhone has dragged down the price of the chips and Samsung has suffered the shame of this dynamic, thus paying a double pledge.

The smartphone market is about to pour out on users a series of technological innovations designed to reinvigorate demand, increase the turnover rate of units and thus revive a sector that has been definitively saturated for months. Smartphones, which have definitely become commodity, are about to face a period of great changes and the time has come for the big players in the sector to redefine the mutual equilibrium: a slight recovery could be hypothesized for the end of the year, in the meantime it is left to CES 2019 the task of keeping fibrillation high.


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