Because it is debated whether to postpone the Italian green pass from one to two doses of the vaccine

The variants of the Sars-Cov-2 coronavirus, the effectiveness of vaccines and the need to be as cautious as possible have to do with it. Apparently, however, no new decisions will be made before we have better understood what is happening with the delta variant in Italy

(foto: Steven Cornfield/Unsplash)

The rules for managing the pandemic, as we know, are very fluid and changeable, and vary on the basis of scientific evidence, new epidemiological data and issues between politics and common feeling. And that’s how it is for the green pass – already today with different rules between our country and the rest of Europe – there seems to be no peace: a few days after its introduction in Italy (and a few hours after the entry into force of that of the European Union) there is already talk of change the requirements to get it. But let’s go in order.

The difference between the Italian and European green pass

In short, the Italian green pass has been calibrated to be less restrictive – and therefore to include more people – than what is generally true in the Old Continent. Either way it can be achieved by proving to be healed from Covid-19 for less than 6 months (through an appropriate certificate of recovery), to have a buffer (molecular or antigenic) with negative result less than 48 hours, or after the vaccination. But if the green pass to move between EU countries requires that they have passed 15 days from the second dose of vaccine (except for the Janssen’s single-dose formulation), the Italian one can be obtained as early as 15 days after the first dose, thus anticipating the other one by a few weeks – the exact number depends on the particular vaccine formulation received.

The reason for these more permissive rules for our country is that, by staying within national borders, we intend to allow a a wider audience of people to access the pass, given that the pass itself is a necessary condition to participate in sport events, musical events, parties or celebrations like i weddings. A decision that is a substantial one turn a blind eye, given the scientific evidence that vaccines reach maximum efficacy only after the double dose. But that seemed justified not only by the collective desire to leave again with the opportunities for meeting and socializing, but also from the present favorable trend in terms of the number of new cases, deaths and employment of terapie intensive.

To give a rough numerical estimate, the people who in Italy can currently access the green pass as vaccinated thanks to this loose rule I’m roughly 14 million more. And that’s it big group of Italians to explain why the green pass has already obtained a very high number of electronic downloads, quantified in 13.7 million by the Minister of Health Roberto Speranza with data updated at the end of last week.

The reasons for thinking about the change of rules

What several scientists, members of the technical-scientific committee and representatives of institutions have feared in the last few hours, starting with the Undersecretary for Health Pierpaolo Sileri, is the possibility of realign the rules for the Italian green pass to the European ones, that is postpone the green light from the first to the second dose of vaccine.

The reasons behind this assessment, which is currently only at the stage of mere hypothesis, there are at least three. First of all, the current rules are the result of an evaluation dated over two months. Months in which, especially from the point of view of variants of Sars-Cov-2, the situation seems to have progressively changed. So it is not in itself a surprise that the rules can be adapted periodically, even if at the moment the idea sounds a bit crazy given that the European green pass in fact has yet to enter into force, and will do so by Thursday 1 July.

The second reason is in fact thescientific uncertainty that still remains regarding theeffectiveness of the different vaccine formulations against variants, both for those already more widespread and emerging ones. In general, vaccines a rna messenger however, they seem to guarantee good protection if administered in double doses for all the variants known so far, but it is now well established that the hedging performance are lower if limited to the first dose only. Finally, but perhaps first in importance, is the fact that in other countries that had eased the measures is occurring one ascent of the epidemic curve, therefore, we would like to prevent this from happening also in Italy, or at least activate all the necessary precautions to contain the spread of the virus as much as possible.

As for the color zones and for templates, of course the rules and conventions are one compromise between scientific evidence, political will, the effective circulation of the virus and the needs that manifest themselves in terms cheap e social. Therefore, the indication on the I know It is on come varying the current parameters may come unilaterally from the scientific world, but it will necessarily be the result of mediation. Especially at a time of the year when the theme do you travel, displacements, events and demonstrations is more in the spotlight than ever.

What are we waiting for

However, no decision on the Italian green pass seems imminent. There are those who speak of waiting a week, those of waiting for two, those (like Minister Speranza) already clarify that it will be a step-by-step evaluation with more than one possible variation. Meanwhile, the watched special there are mainly three: the trend of the contagion curve in the United Kingdom, where the delta variant (and the delta plus) seems to have spread particularly widely and where we can observe in advance what could happen in our country. Then the trend of infections along the whole peninsula, paying particular attention to possible signs of interruption of the descent of the curves or even of aturnaround. To date, for example, it is estimated, through preliminary data, that the prevalence of the delta variant in Italy is close to 20%. And finally the refinement of quantitative scientific evidence regarding the efficacy of single dose and double dose of each vaccine against the most closely monitored variants.

The possible hypotheses for the remodeling of the Italian green pass are obviously much more numerous than the dichotomous choice between 15 days after the first dose and 15 days after the second. For example, theoretically a differentiation could be inserted – in case the scientific evidence suggests it – a differentiation based on the type of vaccine received, or you could change the temporal distance between the two doses. In practice, if until now it made sense to keep the two doses further apart (within the tolerance range indicated by the regulatory authorities) to vaccinate as many people as possible with the first dose, in case of complying with the European green pass it would be convenient. bring together the two administrations, to allow you to get the green pass more quickly.

All without neglecting a couple of important ones communication issues. Creating complex or changing rules could generate confusion, as the already very wide variety of case studies where people can be. And then the race for the green pass could let the idea pass that with the green certificate you can forget those prevention rules which instead remain in force and decisive: masks in indoor places or with too many people, hygiene, attention to any symptoms and so on.

Categories:   Science