Covid-19, what the numbers tell us about the increase in cases in Europe

Infections have increased by 10% in the last week, thanks to the relaxation of restrictions and the increase in travel. WHO recommends attention in the management of large events such as Europeans

(foto: TheAndrasBarta via Pixabay)

The national Italian is preparing, tonight July 2, to play Munich i quarter finals against Belgium ai Europeans. A great opportunity to have fun for many spectators, but it is also a moment of meeting (but there is not only this, if we think about the Olympic Games) in which the risk of contagion, not only during the event, but also before or after, it could inevitably grow. And precisely on this the World Health Organization (WHO) has just drawn attention, urging a more accurate monitoring even before matches start and finally, in the moment of outflow of fans. Also because – the WHO remarks – in the last week the number of cases in Europe (across the continent) is increased by 10%: this is not the time to loosen your grip. Here is where we are with Covid-19, vaccines and vaccine rules, from the second to the third dose.

Covid-19: sale in Europa

Last week, the number of cases increased by 10% due to an increase in travel, crowds and loosening of restrictions “WHO regional director for Europe Hans Kluge said on July 1, highlighting the existence of the risk of a new wave “If we don’t stay disciplined”. In Italy the case report indicates that we are now under one thousand new infected a day and the positivity rate is generally decreasing (yesterday at 0.4%), as well as the famous Rt, which drops to 0.63. But still in our country the cases of the delta variant are increasing and the guard must be kept high, as the authorities underline. The Europeans they can provide opportunities for the virus to spread if not careful. Also because epidemics are not being contained all over the world: in Africa, for example, despite the hot season for six weeks, infections are on the rise (cases of a quarter every 7 days and deaths of 15% in 38 African countries), mainly due to the delta variant.

The role of the delta variant

The delta variant, more contagious from 40% to 60% compared to alpha (former English variant), it certainly has a role in the growth of cases. For now the transmission mode are the same as those of the traditional virus. In the last week of June, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) indicated that by the end of the summer this variant will cover 90% of new cases in Europe. Also in Italy it rises to 25% the percentage of people with Covid-19 affected by the delta, although the Higher Institute of Health has announced in a report relating to the period 21-27 June that it is – both for the delta both for the kappa (in initials B.1.617.1) – di limited outbreaks. In the case of the delta variant, a single dose is not effective, while full vaccination is: the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has just pointed out that two doses are protective.

And vaccination heterologous?

Even on the front of the so-called vaccination heterologous, namely the administration of two different vaccines for each dose, there is some news. We know that anyone under 60 who received a dose of the vaccine before – before the blockade Vaxzevria of AstraZeneca you can now choose whether to still have AstraZeneca or switch to a mRna vaccine, as initially recommended by our authorities. The data of the two trials underway in Spain and France, still limited but growing, are promising and perhaps also associated with a greater effectiveness of the answer. IS new data support this option even more, in the face of a possible increase in mild and moderate side effects.

As a article just came out on Nature, it must be remembered that the participants involved in the trials are still in the hundreds and it is not possible to estimate rare side effects that emerge only on several tens of thousands of people. On the subject too l’Ema remains cautious although he is optimistic: Marco Cavaleri, president of the EMA vaccine task force, explained that the Agency is unable to provide a definitive recommendation on the use of different anti-Covid vaccines for the two doses of the cycle, but that “Preliminary data from studies in Spain and Germany show a good immune response heterologous vaccination e no security issues. And Ema is now considering the opportunity of one third dose and will decide in September on this possibility and on the modalities of possible administration.

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