Euronews Business provides a comprehensive analysis of hiring expectations across 21 European countries, focusing specifically on key industrial sectors.
As we approach the final quarter of 2024, both public and private employers in Europe are anticipated to continue their hiring activities. According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey, hiring expectations remain predominantly positive across all 21 countries involved. However, it’s worth noting a general decline compared to the same timeframe in 2023.
Experts attribute this shift to skill mismatches and slower economic growth, which significantly influence hiring trends throughout the continent.
Measuring Hiring Expectations: A Deep Dive
The ManpowerGroup survey, which includes insights from 40,340 employers across 42 global economies, calculates the Net Employment Outlook (NEO). This key metric offers a snapshot of hiring intentions by deducting the percentage of employers expecting a decrease in hiring from those looking to expand their workforce.
A positive NEO score indicates a more favorable hiring environment, suggesting that more employers are gearing up to hire than to cut jobs. Currently, Europe’s seasonally adjusted hiring expectations vary widely, with figures ranging from 11% in Czechia to 32% in Switzerland, resulting in an average of 20.5% across all 21 countries.
Among Europe’s leading economies, the UK leads with a hiring expectation of 28%, followed closely by Germany and France at 22%, Spain at 20%, and Italy at 19%. Notably, only five countries outperformed the global average of 25%: Switzerland, the Netherlands, the UK, Ireland, and Belgium.
Government Strategies and Economic Disparities
There are significant discrepancies in economic activity, sector strength, and hiring intentions across Europe. Mara Stefan, Vice President of Global Insights at ManpowerGroup, highlights the varied strategies that different governments adopt to address economic, social, and international challenges.
She cautions that proximity to conflict can heighten uncertainties and influence responses across countries. Moreover, reliance on energy imports varies greatly, with Germany depending heavily on them, while countries like Norway enjoy greater self-sufficiency.
Decline in Hiring Across Majority of Countries
Overall, hiring expectations dipped by an average of 3.5 percentage points from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 across these 21 European nations. Thirteen countries experienced a decline in their hiring outlook year-over-year, while only six saw an increase.
Despite the overall downward trend, Hungary (+5 pp) and Slovakia (+4 pp) enjoyed the most significant increases in hiring expectations. Conversely, Portugal faced the steepest decline of 16 pp, followed by Sweden (-13 pp), Turkey (-12 pp), Austria (-11 pp), and Finland (-9 pp).
Shifting Hiring Practices Amidst Recession Concerns
According to Stefan, hiring activity was crucial in mitigating recession fears last year. Companies were focused on hiring to maintain growth and combat inflation, while workers frequently switched jobs to seek better wages amidst rising prices.
As the recession threat diminishes, employers have started to adopt more cautious hiring strategies, leading to fewer job openings and stagnant wage growth. The landscape has changed considerably since Q3 2023, with a notable shift in employer sentiment driven by weaker economic forecasts and trade uncertainties, particularly for export-oriented sectors like automotive manufacturing in Germany.
While a positive NEO suggests optimism, it’s essential to know that some employers still plan to downsize. A closer examination reveals that 18% of employers anticipate workforce reductions, compared to 38% who expect to hire.
In countries like Switzerland, Norway, the Netherlands, and Ireland, over 45% of employers expect to expand their teams in the upcoming months. Conversely, Romania leads in workforce reduction projections at 25%, followed by Turkey (23%) and Slovakia (22%).
Sector Variability in Hiring Expectations
In the EMEA region, which encompasses Europe, the Middle East, and Africa, the strongest hiring outlooks are found in the information technology (31%) and financial services/real estate (28%) sectors. Predominantly based in Europe, these statistics reflect the overall trend across the continent while accounting for limited representation from other regions.
Interestingly, the energy and utilities sector shows the weakest employment outlook at just 6%. Belgium stands out with the most robust hiring expectation in the healthcare and life sciences sector at an impressive 62%. In the IT sector, the Netherlands boasts the highest NEO figure at 49%, while Romania surprisingly reports negative expectations with a NEO of -3%.
“The continued robust outlook in the IT sector is driving an urgent demand for tech talent, particularly with the growing interest in AI across various industries,” noted Jonas Prising, ManpowerGroup’s Chairman and CEO.
Photo credit & article inspired by: Euronews
