The thunderstorms drive away high in the Azores: summer is coming back – and this time it will stay
For days and weeks there have been repeated storms and floods. But there is hope. Because in the next week the Azores high will finally get stronger again and the weather will stabilize. Summer is coming back.
What the climate models have already indicated will prevail next week. The Azores high is finally gaining strength again, bringing summer back to Western Europe. For weeks, the weather in Germany, but also in our neighboring countries, has been characterized by unrest that has not been seen for a long time. It felt like there were storms, floods or hail somewhere every day.
Climate models are confirmed
This is of course due to the general weather situation. In contrast to previous years, we will have a powerful jet over the Atlantic in 2021. And this jet is still sending cool air and low pressure areas to Germany. Because Germany has long been on the brink of a strong high above Russia. This is a real omega high that is very stable and on the flanks of which there are low pressure areas.
These low pressure zones are also called wet feet or swamp of the omega. In this swamp, warm and cold air masses meet and low pressure areas ensure dynamic uplift. So ideal conditions for thunderstorms and also for severe thunderstorms. That’s why we currently have all the storms in Germany.
Weather changes from Tuesday
It will continue like this until Tuesday. Heavy storms threaten again on Monday. But then the storms finally subside. The Azores high is getting stronger and high pressure prevails over Western Europe. The high above Russia is reduced at the same time and cool air comes to Eastern Europe. Now the East is getting to feel the wet feet of the new Azores omega, so to speak.
By the weekend, a so-called high-over-low position develops, with high pressure over the North Sea and low pressure over Italy. That may mean rain for the south at the beginning, but overall the weather will be better.
Jet is blocked
The jet is blocked and can no longer reach Central Europe. This means that this collision of air masses no longer occurs – the reason for the many thunderstorms in recent times. It all looks like the Azores high is getting stronger and will remain strong for the time being. So it can be that it stays friendly and summery warm in Germany for at least a week, and even up to three weeks.
Why doesn’t summer weather last longer?
In 2021, summer is falling back into an old pattern. For about 15 years there has been a new summer pattern in Europe, with lots of sun and increasingly with heat waves and drought. Because the jet is very weak now in most of the summers.
The result is heat waves, as in previous years. But this year the old summer pattern prevailed, just like in 2003, 2010 and 2018. That does not mean that it will be cold, but it does mean that the summer is more changeable. It is not for nothing that most of the precipitation falls in summer. At least that’s how it used to be.
And the rain has an indirect effect on the summer heat. Because when the ground is dry, heat waves intensify. Temperatures are higher and the heat waves last longer. This is what scientific studies have found out over the past few years.
Weeks of heat are unlikely
But if there is enough moisture, as in this year, then one can conclude that the summer weather sections do not last quite as long as in recent years. Although the year 2003 has shown that great heat is possible even under such conditions, the probability is rather low that it will be hot and dry for weeks after the wet start into July.
So summer is coming again, but it will probably be interrupted again. Incidentally, mild or warm weather could last a very long time this year. The first onset of winter should, according to the first forecasts, be a long time coming.
Categories: General