Aviation contributes approximately 2% of the world’s carbon dioxide emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. With air travel demand poised to escalate, aviation emissions are forecasted to double by 2050. In response to these pressing concerns, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) aims to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 in line with the Paris Agreement, which seeks to keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius. This raises an important question: Are there practical and economically feasible strategies to reach this ambitious goal in the next 25 years?
In an effort to tackle this issue, researchers from the MIT Center for Sustainability Science and Strategy (CS3) and the MIT Laboratory for Aviation and the Environment have dedicated the past year to analyzing decarbonization strategies for aviation in Latin America. This region anticipates a more than threefold increase in air travel by 2050, which would effectively double current aviation-related emissions.
One of the foremost solutions identified is the development and deployment of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This innovative fuel is derived from low- and zero-carbon feedstocks, such as municipal waste and non-food crops, and can seamlessly integrate with existing aircraft systems and refueling infrastructure. Notably, SAF can achieve performance levels similar to petroleum-based jet fuel while maintaining up to 80% lower carbon emissions.
The research, which focused on Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru, evaluated the availability of SAF feedstocks, along with the costs associated with various SAF production pathways. Researchers examined how implementing SAF could influence fuel consumption, pricing, emissions, and aviation demand across these countries. Their findings have been compiled in a CS3 Special Report.
Understanding SAF Emissions, Costs, and Sources
Under a bold emissions reduction scenario aimed at limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius and increasing SAF usage in Latin America to 65% by 2050, researchers project a significant 60% decrease in aviation emissions by that year compared to a baseline scenario without enhanced climate policies. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2050 will also necessitate other measures, including operational efficiency improvements, upgrades to the airplane fleet, exploring alternative propulsion technologies, and implementing carbon offsets and removals.
As of 2024, the price of jet fuel in Latin America is around $0.70 per liter. Based on current feedstock availability, projected SAF costs in these six countries are estimated to range from $1.11 to $2.86 per liter. However, the researchers warn that rising fuel prices could potentially impact the operating costs of the aviation sector and overall flight demand if strategies to manage these price hikes are not established.
For the 1.5-degree Celsius scenario, total investment in constructing new SAF production facilities from 2025 to 2050 is estimated at $204 billion across these nations (with projections from $5 billion in Ecuador to $84 billion in Brazil). Researchers identified sugarcane- and corn-based ethanol-to-jet fuel and palm oil- and soybean-based hydro-processed esters as the most promising short-term feedstock sources for SAF production in Latin America.
“Our findings demonstrate that SAF provides a crucial pathway for decarbonization, which must be complemented by comprehensive emissions reduction policies that utilize market-based mechanisms to address remaining emissions,” remarked Sergey Paltsev, lead author of the report and deputy director of MIT CS3.
Actionable Recommendations
The report concluded with strategic recommendations directed toward national policymakers and aviation industry stakeholders in Latin America.
The researchers emphasized the necessity of governmental policies and regulatory frameworks to create favorable conditions for attracting investments in SAF and ensuring its commercial viability as the aviation sector moves toward decarbonization. Without well-crafted policy frameworks, SAF requirements could lead to higher air travel costs. Fuel producers would benefit from stable, long-term regulatory measures that promote robust supply chains, foster demand to achieve economies of scale, and encourage innovative SAF production methods.
Importantly, the research team recommended collaborative efforts across the region in shaping SAF policies. A collective decarbonization strategy among Latin American countries would enhance competitiveness, optimize economies of scale, and facilitate the attainment of long-term emissions reduction targets.
“Considering regional feedstock availability and costs, Latin America has the potential to emerge as a leading player in SAF production,” stated Angelo Gurgel, principal research scientist at MIT CS3 and a co-author of the study. “SAF requirements, coupled with strong government support measures, are integral for sustainable decarbonization while improving connectivity and access to air transport for underserved communities.”
This study received financial support from LATAM Airlines and Airbus.
Photo credit & article inspired by: Massachusetts Institute of Technology
